Uncertainty

Our theme for 2019 is ‘Uncertainty’.

Uncertainty

Everyone is talking about uncertainty – in finance, climate, migration, disease or infrastructure. Decision-makers often treat all kinds of uncertainties as if they are risks, with probabilities that can be calculated. But sustainability involves other kinds of uncertainties – whether they’re due to incomplete evidence, complexity, divergent values, scientific disagreement, gaps in knowledge or the simple possibility of surprise.

Uncertainties can make it hard to plan ahead. But recognising them can help to reveal new questions and choices. What kinds of uncertainty are there, why do they matter for sustainability, and what ideas, approaches and methods can help us to respond to them?

This page collects together a growing list of resources, papers and links on the theme of Uncertainty to inspire thought and action.

The ‘Uncertainty’ theme is the second in a four-year programme built around research, learning and events. Find out more about our programme.

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Blog posts: Introducing uncertainty

Question marks

Introducing our Uncertainty theme
Embracing uncertainty: what are the implications for sustainability and development?
Ian Scoones

Uncertainty, politics and science
A series of three blog posts by Andy Stirling

Other blog posts on uncertainty

Art, uncertainty and system change
Becky Ayre

Views from the coast: uncertainty beyond climate change
Nathan Oxley


Symposium: The politics of UNcertainty

Our main event in 2019 will be a symposium in July on ‘The Politics of Uncertainty: Practical Challenges for Transformative Action’.

Event page


Project highlights

PASTRES: Pastoralism, Uncertainty and Resilience

PASTRES (Pastoralism, Uncertainty and Resilience: Global Lessons from the Margins) is a research project which aims to learn from the ways that pastoralists respond to uncertainty, applying such ‘lessons from the margins’ to global challenges.

PASTRES will foster a conversation with other policy domains where uncertainty is pervasive, including financial and commodity systems, critical infrastructure management, disease outbreak response, migration policy, climate change and conflict and security governance.

Read more

TAPESTRY

TAPESTRYThe TAPESTRY project examines how transformation may arise ‘from below’ in marginal environments with high levels of uncertainty, and how this could be scaled up and out.

TAPESTRY focuses on three ‘patches of transformation’ in India and Bangladesh – vulnerable coastal areas of Mumbai, the Sundarbans and Kutch – where hybrid alliances and innovative practices are reimagining sustainable development and inspiring societal transformation.

Read more

System Change Hive

Held in Brighton starting from February 2019, the System Change Hive is a series of discussions that brings together art and research on the theme of systemic change. Informed by ideas from STEPS and climate communications experts, and with mentoring from experienced artists, a group of emerging artists are creating a set of artworks that respond to concerns about environmental collapse under capitalism, and open up the possibilities of radically different futures.

Visit the website


recent steps publications

Uncertainty. Chapter by Andy Stirling in Companion to Environmental Studies (Routledge, 2018)

Precautionary appraisal as a response to risk, uncertainty, ambiguity and ignorance. Chapter by Andy Stirling in Routledge Handbook of Ecological Economics (Routledge, 2017)

Living on the Edge: Climate Change and Uncertainty in the Indian Sundarbans. Ghosh, U., Bose, S. and Brahmachari, R., 2018

Addressing Climate Change Uncertainty in Dryland Kachchh, India. Srivastava, S. and Mehta, L., 2018


Resources

Video: Why uncertainty isn’t just about risk (4 minutes) 

Prof Andy Stirling, co-director of the ESRC STEPS Centre, introduces different forms of uncertainty, and explains why treating all uncertainty as risk can lead to neglecting some important questions.

Video: Methods to explore uncertainty (5 minutes)

Prof Andy Stirling explores four kinds of uncertainties (risk, ambiguity, uncertainty and ignorance) and shows how different methods can be useful for each of them, in order to make more robust decisions.

Video: Lecture – Knowing, not knowing… and power (63 minutes)

In this lecture, part of our online course on Pathways to Sustainability, Andy Stirling takes a detailed look at different kinds of uncertainty, how decision making deals with them, and how power affects the way that uncertainty is treated in policy and practice.

Film: Uncertain Climate

A short film exploring the complex uncertainties faced by coastal and dryland communities in India, and the contrasting views of local people, policy makers and scientists.

Why the precautionary principle matters

In this opinion piece for the Guardian, Andy Stirling shows how uncertainty is about a deeper set of questions than just risk, and how the precautionary principle can allow time for exploring them.


Methods and tools

Multi-criteria mapping (MCM)
A web-based interactive tool which can be used to ‘open up’ incertitude about particular problems or scenarios.

Photovoice
A participatory research method where people take pictures and relate the things that matter to them, which has been used by STEPS in research with people living with uncertainty in the Sundarbans (see this example).

Methods vignettes
A list of methods useful for appreciating pathways to sustainability, many of which explore and take account of uncertainties, among other questions.