Uncertainties are everywhere, but how do we navigate the future when we don’t know the likelihood of different outcomes? There are always gaps in our knowledge about the way things are and what might happen, but there is a great deal of pressure to ignore or downplay uncertainties, closing down towards a narrow ‘risk management’ approach.

Taking ‘incertitude’ seriously – including risk, uncertainty, ambiguity and ignorance – can help to avoid nasty surprises, and uncover options for action that have been neglected.